“Many of the emerging world’s bigger economies lie in amber territory. India and Indonesia are already feeling the pressure. Others, like Mexico, have fared well amid recent turmoil: the peso has been roughly flat over the past year. But credit growth and high levels of financial openness are potential points of fragility. Malaysia and the Philippines, victims of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, are in better shape now. Both run current-account surpluses and have built up a much larger reserve buffer relative to short-run external obligations. Yet credit growth has also been zesty.”
Countries in the red zone are most at risk. South Africa, Ukraine and a clutch of Latin American countries all look vulnerable, but Turkey tops the list. It is running a current-account deficit of over 6% of GDP, its short-term external debt and debt payments amount to over 150% of available reserve assets, and since 2009 credit has grown faster there than it has in any other emerging market in the index. The Turkish lira has already fallen by 13% against the dollar since the start of the year, but it may yet sink further.
Sumber : The Economist